Artículo de Katherine Salazar, publicado en el Reporte Semanal (del 2 al 6 de diciembre del 2019) del Departamento de Estudios Económicos del Scotiabank. La economía china se ha ido deteriorando durante el 2019 producto del conflicto comercial con EE.UU. El crecimiento de los últimos cinco años promediaba 6.9%; sin embargo, la percepción de un crecimiento horizontal cambio hacia una “desaceleración”. En el 3T19 la economía china creció 6%, el menor crecimiento durante los últimos 27 años, y el país espera crecer en un rango entre 6.0%-6.5% este año, esperando un registro menor al 6% en el último trimestre.
América Economía.- Perú está cerca de firmar un acuerdo para impulsar las inversiones de Estados Unidos en infraestructura y energía en el país, una iniciativa de Washington para contrarrestar la influencia china en la región, dijo una diplomática peruana.
MarketWatch.- The nation’s trade deficit dropped almost 8% in October to a 16-month low, largely because of lower imports from China tied to the ongoing U.S. trade dispute with the Asian giant.
Bloomberg.- Chinese state media said the government would soon publish a list of “unreliable entities” that could lead to sanctions against U.S. companies, signaling trade talks between the two nations are increasingly under threat from disputes over human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
BBC.- Retailers were poised for record-breaking Cyber Monday sales following blockbuster spending in this year’s Black Friday events, a forecast showed. Consumers in the US were expected to spend $9.4bn (£7.3bn) online on Monday, according to Adobe Analytics.
BBC.- A US law supporting pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong may unsettle trade talks with China, but is unlikely to derail them, analysts say. The US president has signed into law a bill that requires an annual review of Hong Kong’s special status with the US.
MarketWatch.- Electoral campaigns are the moment when political parties remember that there are more poor than rich voters, and in most western democracies, this is the time when promises to raise the minimum wage flourish. In the U.S., Democratic candidates for their party’s presidential nomination all seem to agree on the need to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, either right away or over time.
BBC.- By the reckoning of most economists, Donald Trump is engaged in a risky game, as he courts trade fights around the world, undermines the US central bank and runs up the national debt.
BBC.- The US and China have reportedly agreed to roll back tariffs as part of any new trade deal. The reports come amid rising hopes that the two countries will sign a pact that declares an end to a trade fight that has disrupted the global economy.
MarketWatch.- The nation’s trade deficit fell almost 5% in September to a five-month low, aided by the first surplus in petroleum since at least 1978 and a decline in imports from Germany and China.
BBC.- US economic growth slowed down in the third quarter, but beat some economists’ expectations. An official estimate put GDP growth at 1.9% during the quarter, ahead of the 1.6% predicted by some economists.
MarketWatch.- Senator Elizabeth Warren said big banks may see the volatility in U.S. short-term money markets recently as an opportunity to dismantle some of the capital rules put in place in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, and warned the White House not to go along.
Agencia Andina.- La región Moquegua, ubicada en el sur peruano, hará su primer envío de 14.5 toneladas de arándanos a Estados Unidos, tras recibir la certificación fitosanitaria del Servicio Nacional de Sanidad Agraria (Senasa) del Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego.
BBC.- The UK should not expect that its “special relationship” with the US means it will get more favourable terms when it comes to trade. That was the warning from former US trade chief, Michael Froman, talking exclusively to the BBC.
Bloomberg.- U.S. retail sales unexpectedly posted the first decline in seven months, suggesting consumers are starting to become shaky as the main pillar of economic growth and potentially bolstering the case for a third straight Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
La República.- Las fértiles tierras de Moquegua comenzaron a producir arándanos de calidad para su exportación. El Consorcio Agrícola Moquegua, de capital peruano-chileno, realizó ayer su primer envío de 14.5 toneladas a Filadelfia, Estados Unidos.
BBC.- The US unemployment rate has fallen to a 50-year low, possibly easing recession worries after recent weak economic data. The Labor Department figures showed that the rate fell to 3.5% in September from 3.7%, with the economy adding 136,000 jobs last month.
BBC.- The US has been given the go-ahead to impose tariffs on $7.5bn (£6.1bn) of goods it imports from the EU. It is the latest chapter in a 15-year battle between the US and the EU over illegal subsidies for planemakers Airbus and rival Boeing.
MarketWatch.- Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, says the Trump administration may be “inching toward bigger moves” in its tit-for-tat trade hostilities against China, amid reports of limiting capital flows to Beijing.
BBC.- The US and Japan have agreed an initial trade deal that will eliminate or lower tariffs on certain products traded between them. Duties on some agricultural goods will be removed or lowered, while digital products will also benefit.
MarketWatch.- The threat of impeachment is back, and this time investors appear to be paying at least some attention. “It felt like politics really wasn’t moving markets too much until today,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist for National, told MarketWatch during Tuesday’s session.
MarketWatch.- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday said the U.S. economy is at risk because the 75-year old era of free trade, which has helped domestic companies prosper globally, is ending.
BBC.- The US central bank has pumped more than $200bn (£160bn) into the financial system this week – the first time there’s been such an intervention since 2008. The Federal Reserve’s aim was to stabilise what is usually a calm part of the market.
BBC.- The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is expected to cut its main interest rates at a meeting in Washington on Wednesday. If it does, the aim will be to stimulate the US economy and get inflation closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. But it will have ramifications far beyond US shores.
América Economía.- Un total de 70 empresas peruanas están incluidas en la lista roja de la Administración de Alimentos y Drogas (FDA, por sus siglas en inglés) de Estados Unidos, tras emitir una alerta de importación -principalmente para productos agropecuarios y pesqueros- porque no cumplieron con una serie de requerimientos de índole sanitario, informó el Instituto de Investigación y Desarrollo de Comercio Exterior de la Cámara de Comercio de Lima (Idexcam).
BBC.- The US economy added 130,000 jobs last month, slowing more than expected, the latest official figures have shown. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 158,000. In July, the economy had created 159,000 new jobs.
Bloomberg.- Perhaps nobody was more surprised to hear that China had called President Donald Trump’s administration to restart trade talks than the government in Beijing itself.
BBC.- President Donald Trump has said the US and China will “very shortly” resume trade talks after a weekend of escalating tension with Beijing. “China called last night… said let’s get back to the table. So we’ll be getting back to the table,” he said.
BBC.- China is set to impose a tariff of up to 10% on $75bn of goods imported from the US in a move that will increase tensions between the two superpowers. Agricultural goods, crude oil and small aircraft are among the products being targeted.
BBC.- Fears of a possible recession on the horizon has led the White House to begin considering several emergency measures to kickstart the US economy. Donald Trump likes to claim credit for “the greatest” economy ever which he hopes will help him win re-election in 2020. America’s current expansion is the longest in US history. More Americans are in work. They’re being paid more. And they’re spending more.